Here is the “classified info” intelligence briefing on the Magic City Jai-5 being disseminated to the general public for the very first time. Note: Updated 9/17 at 7 am with additional detail.

114 Jai-5 Events to date through Sunday, Sept 13 (Note:  Jai-5 not offered 100% of performances)

48 winners with 5/5 (42.1% of events)

38 were single ticket jackpot winners (33.3% of events) with average payoff of $2,691 each, largest was $7,015

10 were multiple winner consolation payoffs (8.8% of events) with average payoff of $345 each, largest was $769 (Note:  payoffs are rounded to nearest dollar)

Consolation Frequency Stats and Average Payoffs:

3/5:  21x, $64

4/5:  45x, $156

Thus, no 2/5 yet for 2020, but a 2/5 payoff did lose game point in Game 7 on Sunday, Sept 13.

Jai-5 “Difficulty Metric” Summary for 2020:

A “Difficulty Metric” hereafter referred to as DM is based on the cumulative measure of difficulty of each Jai-5 Game result.  A DM of 5 is the easiest and DM of 40 would be the hardest (Note:  40 if all 5-games have 8-entries).   This SayHiLi metric shows that no DM of 5 has occurred in 2020.  Here is the summary of DM’s & DM ranges (DM) and # of occurrences (#O).  Keep in mind that 114 events for a Jai-5 is probably a low sample of events.  The average DM for the 114 events is a 13. Added info (9/17 am): Also shown is how many were multiple 5/5 winners (MW) and how many were Jackpot 5/5 winners (JP), how many were consolations and with how many correct winners (i.e. x-3/5, x-4/5).

DM:  #O (x MW, x JP, x-3/5, x-4/5)

5:  0x (easiest of Jai-5’s not hit yet, undoubtedly MW if this occurs)    

6: 2x (2 MW, 0 JP))

7: 1x (0 MW, 1 JP)

8: 18x (6 MW, 11 JP, 1-4/5)

9: 5x (2 MW, 3 JP)

10: 9x (0 MW, 8 JP, 1-4/5)

11: 11x (0 MW, 7 JP, 4-4/5)

12: 13x (0 MW, 7 JP, 6-4/5)

13: 8x (0 MW, 1 JP, 7-4/5)

14: 6x (0 MW, 0 JP, 6-4/5)

15: 9x (1-3/5, 8-4/5)

16: 5x (1-3/5, 4-4/5)

17: 6x (2-3/5, 4-4/5)

18: 9x (6-3/5, 3-4/5)

19: 3x (3-3/5)

20: 4x (4-3/5)

21: 4x (3-3/5, 1-4/5)

22: 1x (1-3/5), Note: a total DM of 22 is average DM of 4.4 for each of the 5-games

23 – 40: 0x (no winners for these most difficult of Jai-5’s)

The above detail breakdown of winners by Difficulty Metric, aka known as “counts” for each game and “total counts” for the 5-game sequence, shows that handicapping truly does play a very important factor in the wagering for Jai-5 bettors. Note that for DM’s of 14 and higher there have been no Jai-5 winners during the 114 events to-date for the Magic City Jai-Alai season. Also, there have been no occurrences of the Jai-5 sequence in the DM range of 23 to 40.

What the heck is a Top Level?

A “Top Level” hereafter referred to as TL is the highest ranked post(s) in a Jai-5 game, in other words the strongest players, the player or players with the highest percentage chance(s) of winning.  Sometimes these are obvious and other times not so much due to the impact of post position and other players in the game.  These TL’s are based on SayHiLi’s method of ranking post numbers for each game of all of the 2020 Jai-5 events prior to each of the events.  Every handicapper would have their own ranking method of course.  Keep in mind sometimes there may even be 2 or even a rare occasion 3-posts that are ranked as a TL of 1 (so not always only one TL in a game), however, each bettor tracking the Jai-5 would likely employ their own specific method.  Here is a summary of SayHiLi’s TL results for the (114) Jai-5 events of 2020 shown by Total # of TL’s in the Jai-5 sequence of 5-games (Tot TL, a range from 0 to 5) and the # of times this occurred (#O).  Also shown is how many Multiple 5/5 Winners (MW) and how many Jackpot 5/5 Winners (JP) and consolation payout info. Jackpot winners are of course the single ticket winners taking down the full Jackpot amount.

Tot TL:  #O  (x MW, x JP, x-3/5, x-4/5)

5:  0x

4: 8x (4 MW, 4 JP)

3: 30x (4 MW, 16 JP, 0-3/5, 10-4/5)

2: 40x (2 MW, 16 JP, 4-3/5, 18-4/5)

1: 30x (0 MW, 2 JP, 12-3/5, 16-4/5)

0: 6x (0 MW, 0 JP, 5-3/5, 1-4/5)

In Conclusion:

Each performance is a different scenario for the Jai-5 and it’s constantly changing with who’s playing in what games, scratches, sequence format and are there doubles games and if so how many posts.  It’s certainly no cake walk if one were to consistently play the Jai-5.  This “classified report” is already getting too lengthy so we will save the Jai-5 “pool size” for another day, however we’re sure this info will spark some interest with some of you and give a few of you something to ponder.  Many I would imagine will be lost at the mention of DM and lose interest in reading further, however, some of us enjoy math and numbers and this could be spot on and an interesting read.  We are guessing that the bettors who invest the most time into planning their wagers are probably among the most successful of Jai-5 bettors.

Week 20 at Magic City Jai-Alai looks to be a tough challenge on the Jai-5 with some tweaks in the Jai-5 sequence which will likely equate to higher jackpots.  One thing for sure, the $1 Jai-5 at Magic City Jai-Alai is most definitely a wagering challenge and an interesting one at that! One more thing for the Jai-Alai gurus to ponder now, the Mighty Ocho, DM’s, TL’s………….sounds like a nightmare or simply an extension of a Jai-5 analysis and another Jai-Alai challenge to make the betting more fun and challenging? These exotic wagers don’t appeal to all, however, neither do the Win, Place, and Show tickets.

Steve M (SayHiLi.com contributor)